Tropical Depression Six Forecast Discussion Number 5

 | By Seamus on 8/27/2019 7:16:23 PM | Views (3) Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019

000
WTNT41 KNHC 272034
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062019
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019

After a brief period when the center was near the edge of the
convection this morning, once again the northwesterly shear
disrupted the cloud pattern, and the low-level center has become
detached from the main thunderstorm activity. The Dvorak estimates
have not changed and still support an initial intensity of 30 kt.
Earlier ASCAT data also indicated some vectors of 30 kt in the
southeast quadrant.  Since the shear is not forecast to abate, only
a small increase in intensity is forecast during the next 24 to 36
hours.  After that time, the cyclone will be moving over cooler
waters and should become extratropical while becoming absorbed by a
larger trough.

The depression meandered all day, but it has now been moving slowly
toward the north-northwest or 345 degrees at 6 knots. This motion
is highly uncertain because it includes the back and forth shifting
of the center from the edge of the convection during the past
several hours. The southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching
mid-latitude trough should steer the cyclone northward and then
northeastward with increasing forward speed over the North Atlantic.
The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little bit to the north
in this advisory following the northward shift of the multimodel
consensus TVCA and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 31.8N  71.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 32.7N  72.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 35.0N  72.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 38.0N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 41.5N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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