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000 WTNT42 KNHC 020846 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 Larry's cloud pattern has gradually become better organized, with deep convection increasing in coverage and intensity near the center and a banding-type eye trying to form. Upper-level outflow is most prominent over the western and northern portions of the circulation. A well-defined low-level eye was apparent on an AMSR-2 image from a few hours ago. Dvorak final T- and Current Intensity-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 4.0/4.0, corresponding to an intensity of 65 kt. Based on these estimates, Larry is upgraded to a hurricane, the fifth of the 2021 Atlantic season. The hurricane is moving just slightly north of west, or 280/17 kt. There are no important changes to the track forecast scenario from the previous advisory. Larry is likely to move along the southern and southwestern periphery of a strong deep-layer subtropical high pressure area over the east-central Atlantic during the next few days. This should result in a gradual turn toward the west-northwest during the next 48-72 hours. A turn toward the northwest is likely in 4-5 days as the system approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track models are fairly well clustered on this future direction of motion with some differences in forward speed. The official track forecast is quite similar to the previous one and is also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA. Larry is expected to remain in an environment conducive for strengthening over the next few days, with marginally warm SSTs, low vertical shear, and surrounded by broad-scale anticyclonic upper-level flow. Therefore, strengthening is likely, and the official forecast calls for Larry to become a major hurricane in 48 hours or so. Some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacements are possible around and after that time. Late in the forecast period, slightly drier air in the environment could limit further intensification. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 13.0N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 13.4N 34.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 14.0N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 14.8N 40.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 15.8N 43.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 18.3N 48.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 20.9N 52.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 23.8N 55.4W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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