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538 WTNT45 KNHC 311453 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 GOES-16 1-minute visible imagery indicates that the low-level circulation of the system has closed off again, although the system is still a bit elongated north-to-south. Westerly shear has caused the center to be exposed to the west and north of the primary convective banding features. NOAA Hurricane Hunter tail Doppler radar data also show that the low is tilted southeastward with height, a reflection of the current shear. Still, the plane had numerous SFMR values of around 35 kt, and dropsonde data showed the pressure has dropped to 1003 mb. These values are sufficient to call the system a tropical storm with an initial wind speed of 35 kt. After a dip southward overnight, Lisa is moving westward again at about 12 kt. The storm should move westward to west-northwestward for the next day or two under a mid-level ridge to the north. As the ridge intensifies in a few days, Lisa is likely to move westward, or possibly a little south-of-west, while it approaches Belize. Model guidance remains in very good agreement, and only a small southward adjustment was made to the previous forecast. Lisa should encounter more conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions for the next few days, with increasing mid-level humidities and generally lower shear. The storm will likely still have some bouts with drier air infiltrating in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation, but the diminishing shear should lessen the impact of this factor. Thus slow intensification is shown for the next few days, consistent with the interpolated previous forecast. It should be noted that the new NHC forecast is on the high side of the guidance for this cycle, with a notable decrease of the forecast intensity in many of the models. The official forecast is lower than the previous one, owing to the model trend, but it is preferable to wait another cycle to make any larger changes after the model suite ingests the plentiful aircraft data for the 12 UTC suite. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica today. 2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required by late today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 15.5N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 15.8N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 16.3N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 16.8N 83.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 17.1N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 17.1N 88.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 16.7N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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