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257 WTNT43 KNHC 220238 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 1100 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Bret has changed little in intensity during the past few hours. The aircraft reported a central pressure near 999-1000 mb with maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 65 kt to the northeast of the center, along with a maximum surface wind estimate of 56 kt from the Stepped Frequency Microwave radiometer. Based on these, the initial intensity remains 55 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Bret continues to generate strong convection near and northeast of the center. However, it continues to be affected by northwesterly shear that is undercutting the storm's outflow pattern. Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 hours as Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles. After that time, the cyclone will encounter increasing vertical wind shear due to an upper-level trough over the eastern Caribbean. This should cause steady to rapid weakening, and Bret is now expected to degenerate into an open trough between 60-72 hr in agreement with the global model guidance. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance. Bret continues to move westward, or 280/14 kt, under the influence of low- to mid-level ridging to its north. Some increase in forward speed may occur over the Caribbean as Bret weakens. There has been little change in the track guidance since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous track with the center passing through the Lesser Antilles in about 24 hours. Users are reminded that NHC's track forecasts have average errors of about 40 n mi at 24 hours, and there is risk of strong winds and heavy rainfall for several islands within the Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the center crosses the island chain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through Thursday and then move across those islands late Thursday and Thursday night as a strong tropical storm. 2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica, and there is a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Barbados and St Vincent and the Grenadines. Additional warnings are possible for some islands in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 13.5N 55.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 13.7N 57.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 14.0N 60.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 14.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 14.7N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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