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000 WTNT42 KNHC 031440 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Kirk's satellite depiction has improved this morning after some dry air entrainment occurred overnight. The inner core has become re-established with cold cloud tops wrapping around the center. The eye has become more pronounced and rounded on infrared and visible imagery. Subjective data-T numbers have increased from the previous advisory to T5.5, from both TAFB and SAB. UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates have increased as well and range from 100-117 kt. Using a blend of these estimates and the improving satellite trends the initial intensity is set at 110 kt. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 310/9 kt. This motion should continue over the next day or so as Kirk moves around the edge of a subtropical ridge located over the eastern Atlantic. An approaching trough moving into the central Atlantic this weekend, will then cause Kirk to curve and turn northeastward between the aforementioned ridge and the trough to the west. Models are tightly clustered and the latest NHC forecast track is near the previous and lies near the consensus aids. The system is embedded in a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Additional strengthening is forecast, with only internal organizational eyewall replacement cycles or dry air intrusion limiting further strengthening over the next day or so. By late weekend, wind shear is forecast to increase over the system and gradual weakening is likely to occur. However, additional baroclinic energy is likely to allow Kirk to maintain hurricane-force winds along with a growing tropical-storm-force wind field through the end of the forecast period. Latest global guidance has Kirk becoming extra-tropical by Day 5, which is depicted in the NHC forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is near the previous and lies near the HFIP corrected-consensus aid. Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across the central and western Atlantic. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 20.4N 45.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 21.4N 47.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 22.8N 48.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 24.6N 49.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 29.7N 49.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 33.0N 48.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 40.3N 40.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 45.4N 27.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams
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