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THE FALL 2016 GREAT LAKES CRYSTAL BALL- A NEW ERA COMING!- PART I- SALMON

| By Seamus on 8/27/2016 9:26:20 PM | Views (2532)

( northern Michigan Atlantic salmon on the streamer/intruder aggressive swing-Russia/ Quebec without the price tag and travel hassles-2016 should be an amazing year!)

SO !!!!... every August I try to give a fair and balanced look at what the Great Lakes salmon/steelhead/trout experience might look like being on the water 300 days a year and having spent considerable time writing books and guiding for steelhead/salmon and trout 365 through all our wonderfully different four seasons.

I have seen 'MASSIVE CHANGES' -especially in the last 5 years! Mostly from global climate change wreaking havoc on the run timing /duration /numbers and what is now the "new normal of abnormal". Droughts and heat waves like this year, only to now produce flooding rains, extremely cold winters and two past summers of abnormally cold summers are confusing the fish, biologists and fishermen/women more than ever before.

Just try to imagine being a Great Lakes guide , who wakes up everyday telling clients, " we need water...we have no water...water temps are too hot....water temps are too cold!..."...blah,blah, on and on the uncertainty and misery effects all in the process.

Not to mention the ever changing bio dynamics of the forage base: no alewives in one report, another report says, " that's bullshit, there is tons of alweives!"....we are seeing mysis shrimp take over systems and cisco/smelt/sculpins/bloater chubs/sticklebacks/perch replace preferred alewives . Here is my predictions and remember " you can't catch fish sitting on the couch watching CNN/MSNBC/FOX talk about the 'Hillary/Trump shit show'- get your ass on a river and enjoy!The only thing that will save you from that nightmare mess is delving into the wonderful natural world we still are privileged to have and partake in.

PACIFIC SALMON/CHINOOK AND COHO

(Muskegon wild king)

( St. Joseph river silver coho)

As I write this, we are already seeing pacific salmon entering the Lake Michigan tributaries from Trail Creek in Indiana, the St. Joe to all the 'century circle' river jewels of the Muskegon, Manistee, Pere Marquette White etc. This kind of makes 'no sense', since we had a blistering hot summer with no water and very , very few off shore wind 'lake-turnovers of cold shoreline water'.. But we always get early runners in late July /August and I have seen coho while guiding summer steelhead on the St. Joe as early as two weeks ago( we hit a really chrome coho dripping scales on Tuesday of this week).

The last wave of severe storms brought good amounts of water to the rivers in the past week ( as much as 12 inches in the Niles/Berrien Springs area- A week ago I could walk across the whole river knee deep like I have never seen it that low in 20 years- and now flood stage!!!- that is the absurdity of it all !

Charter boat activity has been steady all summer out on the big lake and decent and nice sized catches of coho and kings/steelhead have been going on which is a" damn good sign' for the fall salmon run!- much better prognosis than last year when there was the worst return of king and coho salmon to the historic Pere Marquette and Manistee systems EVER!!!

The good news for us on the Muskegon was we had a very strong run of wild kings last year- 10 times better than the other river systems- THAT'S A FACT!, and I'm not just tooting my own horn!

Many 'negative-ites' will say ( btw. , so much negativity/PC crap these days- sorry just my take!) ..." awe,... that is just Supinski pimping his biz". My reasoning for the massive wild runs of salmon the Muskegon produced is due to the mind boggling amount of spawning gravel this river has-almost 80% of the whole river is spawning gravel verses other rivers like P.M./Manistee etc. where silt/sand and logs predominate the river bottom strata. Also, the Muskegon 'midge/diptera" hatches have gone through the roof!- and sky rocketed , (which btw this is the preferred food of salmon fry/parr before they leave and smolt). Very old estimates ( early 2000-2007) sonic wave density studies of salmon smolting migration on the Muskegon/Maple Island Bridge by Dr. Ed Rutherford et. al. and the Great Lakes Institute out of Muskegon estimated the Big Muskegon produced roughly 1.5 million salmon smolts a year)

Also, the Great Lakes charter fleets operating out of the port of Muskegon is way down to non-existent and 'nowhere near the numbers of harvesting charter fleets operating out of Ludington and Manistee- numerical fact.

Another possibility that KING salmon foraging behavior has recently seen more diversity to other baitfish/prey/gobies/shrimp like steelhead and browns/lakers feed on, can be taking place but there are no studies to support only local gossip/rumors.

If there is a very bright spot for Great Lakes pacific salmon it is the Coho silvers. Since they are (65/35 % vertebrate/invertebrate) mixed feeders on a multitude of baitfish prey/insects etc. like steelhead and browns. The massive and unpredicted increase in "mysis shrimp- once thought to be almost extinct in the G.L. ), now due to lack of predation by alewives, could become their preferred food source. The one I harvested from the St. Joe several weeks ago had 'blood red pomegranate flesh' like an Alaskan sockeye/silver ( due to crustacean feeding) and was one of the best tasting salmon I have ever had on the grill- being a former chef I am very, very discriminating on fish quality and taste..fyi!

Reports from Lake Ontario is that the kings there have been running very large, their alewife numbers are 'way-up!' and the Ontario tribs should see much better returns than last year if they get more 'WATER-H2O-COOLER TEMPS'- which they are suffering from- the global climate change gig!

PREDICTION: I believe you will see better numbers of fish this year on all the rivers based on the lake catches and very light charter activity- it could be lowest numbers of salmon harvested in decades and the fact that good Chinook returns took place to smaller Trail Creek two days ago on the extreme southern end of the lake. Besides, it couldn't get any worse than last year and remember one 'stick in your eye fact'- you can't have returning salmon if the charter fleet decimated them for 'Team Igloo/Yeti " in the summer like in previous years...just say'in ! I think the Coho returns should be the most noticeable based on the changing forage base which is to their favor.

MICHIGAN ATLANTIC SALMON

In my humble opinion, the most exciting component of the ever evolving Great Lakes salmonid experience is the increasing abundance and potential Atlantic salmon have in Michigan and New York's inland lakes, Lake Huron and Lake Ontario. They have always been the 'apple of my eye' since I experienced my first Atlantic on a big heavy Hardy spey rod my uncle had as a boy on a Polish river that ran into the Baltic. The St Mary's success story started by Roger Greil of Lake Superior State, which spread its success to me and my client 'STILL' holding the world IGFA record (26 pounds) taken from a place dear to my heart- Torch Lake, is still evolving favorably and can only get better with the changing biomass I mentioned earlier. The Lake Huron stocking is now being evaluated by the DNR, and the fact that the Michigan DNR Platte hatchery can now grow them with much success and efficiency are all positives for this program.

Lake Ontario has already seen natural reproduction on the N.Y. Salmon river and Ontario's Credit River. But their chinook populations remain stronger and could be a deterrent to further salar production. I still believe New York and Ontario are using inferior strains of atlantic salmon and they can take notes on Greil's success. Lakes Huron and Michigan are the potential future for these fish if the chinook king population continues to be fragile and uncertain.

PREDICTION: ONLY GOING TO GET BETTER AND MAY BE THE FUTURE!- THAT WOULD BE NICE FOR FLY SWINGERS FOR SURE!

NOTES AND EVENTS: I will be doing 'Selectivity Clinics- Classroom/Tying/On stream 'boots in water' programs on tailwaters, spring creeks and steelhead in the coming weeks- would love to have you attend!

*Delaware River Club - Labor Day weekend- Sept. 3rd and 4th...here is link below and to sign up and register- the hatch master, Al Caucci will make a special appearance

http://thedelawareriverclub.com/events/

* Tulpehocken Creek Outfitters-TCO- Pennsylvania- September 16/17/18 ( more info to come)- State College, Bryn Mawr ( Philadelphia), and Boiling Springs ( Yellow Breeches)- spring creeks and steelhead- Sept.

WE STILL HAVE GREAT LODGING AND GUIDING DATES AVAILABLE FOR THIS FALL!- LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING YOU AT THE GRAY DRAKE!- OUR POOLS ARE THE HEART OF THE MUSKEGON SALMON RUN!

Catch Information

Species:
Alewife

Atlantic Salmon

Chinook Salmon

Coho Salmon

Rainbow Trout

Sockeye Salmon

This Fishing Report was submitted on 8/27/2016 9:26:20 PM by Seamus and last updated on 8/27/2016 9:26:20 PM.

Location

7522 S Gray Drake Bluff
Newaygo, MI US

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