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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 17

 | By Seamus on 10/3/2024 10:40:24 AM | Views (7)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

000
WTNT42 KNHC 031440
TCDAT2
 
Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024
 
Kirk's satellite depiction has improved this morning after some dry 
air entrainment occurred overnight. The inner core has become 
re-established with cold cloud tops wrapping around the center. 
The eye has become more pronounced and rounded on infrared and 
visible imagery. Subjective data-T numbers have increased from the 
previous advisory to T5.5, from both TAFB and SAB. UW-CIMSS 
objective intensity estimates have increased as well and range from 
100-117 kt. Using a blend of these estimates and the improving 
satellite trends the initial intensity is set at 110 kt.
 
The hurricane is moving northwestward at 310/9 kt.  This motion 
should continue over the next day or so as Kirk moves around the 
edge of a subtropical ridge located over the eastern Atlantic. An 
approaching trough moving into the central Atlantic this weekend, 
will then cause Kirk to curve and turn northeastward between the 
aforementioned ridge and the trough to the west. Models are tightly 
clustered and the latest NHC forecast track is near the previous 
and lies near the consensus aids.

The system is embedded in a favorable environment with low vertical 
wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Additional 
strengthening is forecast, with only internal organizational eyewall 
replacement cycles or dry air intrusion limiting further 
strengthening over the next day or so. By late weekend, wind shear 
is forecast to increase over the system and gradual weakening is 
likely to occur. However, additional baroclinic energy is likely to 
allow Kirk to maintain hurricane-force winds along with a growing 
tropical-storm-force wind field through the end of the forecast 
period. Latest global guidance has Kirk becoming extra-tropical by 
Day 5, which is depicted in the NHC forecast. The NHC intensity 
forecast is near the previous and lies near the HFIP 
corrected-consensus aid.
 
Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across
the central and western Atlantic.  These swells will likely increase
the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward
Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and
the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 20.4N  45.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 21.4N  47.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 22.8N  48.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 24.6N  49.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 26.8N  50.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 29.7N  49.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 33.0N  48.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 40.3N  40.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 45.4N  27.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams
 
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